This weekend, all eyes are on Paramount’s horror sequel, **Smile 2**, which is poised to make a notable impact at the box office. Early presales suggest an opening in the low tens of millions, with projections fluctuating recently between $18 million to $20 million. These estimates, however, hinge significantly on the engagement from Latino and Hispanic audiences. Their response could propel this film, which carries a production budget of $28 million, to abnormal heights reminiscent of its predecessor’s colossal success. The original *Smile* film, notorious for its successful transition from a streaming format to a full theatrical release, opened with strong box office numbers, earning an impressive $22.6 million in its debut and eventually grossing over $105 million domestically.
The trajectory of *Smile* serves as a case study in adaptive Hollywood strategies during the pandemic era. Unlike certain other films that remained tethered to their streaming platforms—such as Disney’s *Hocus Pocus 2*, which, despite favorable test scores, found its audience only on Disney+—*Smile* capitalized on a unique opportunity. It skillfully navigated the post-Covid landscape, becoming a significant theatrical success. The return of original director-writer Parker Finn for the sequel adds an authentic flavor that fans of the franchise may appreciate.
In *Smile 2*, a notable shift occurs as the narrative centers around Naomi Scott, recognized from her roles in *Power Rangers* and *Aladdin*. She embodies a pop star grappling with the dual pressures of newfound fame and unexplainable supernatural occurrences that increase in both intensity and horror. This layered exploration of fame and psychological distress is likely to resonate with viewers, particularly in an age that frequently examines mental health under high-pressure circumstances. Comparatively, the first installment told the story of psychiatrist Dr. Rose Cotter, portrayed by Sosie Bacon, whose professional and personal lives spiraled into chaos after a traumatic event.
While *Smile* received a solid critical reception, with an 80% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes and a CinemaScore rating of B-, early reviews for *Smile 2* indicated an even higher freshness rating—currently at 86% based on 36 reviews. This is intriguing given the first film’s advantage, which arose from a lack of competition in the horror genre during its release period. The current landscape, with a multitude of horror offerings available, could dilute its box office potential.
The sequel’s target demographics appear to skew younger and predominantly female, attracting an audience under the age of 25. This contrasts with *Terrifier 3*, which managed to secure $2.2 million for its opening day, indicating a stronger male following. Additionally, *Smile 2* will be displayed in Premium Large Formats (PLFs) across approximately 3,500 theaters, but it notably lacks Imax screenings—these are currently under a three-week exclusivity agreement for Warner Bros.’ *Joker: Folie à Deux*.
As the weekend unfolds, the performance of *Smile 2* will present significant insight into audience behavior, genre popularity, and the evolving dynamics of theatrical versus streaming releases in today’s entertainment landscape.