The cinematic landscape is gearing up for a significant shift as audiences prepare to return to the theaters just before Thanksgiving. With Universal Pictures’ adaptation of the Broadway musical “Wicked” and Paramount’s historical epic “Gladiator II” slated for release on November 22, the buzz surrounding these films is palpable. Both projects are projected to generate impressive box office earnings, with “Wicked” aiming for openings exceeding $80 million and “Gladiator II” anticipated to reach around $65 million. As the date approaches, industry insiders are speculating whether these releases could create a market phenomenon reminiscent of last summer’s “Barbenheimer.”
“Wicked” is particularly drawing attention from female audiences, while “Gladiator II” appears to cater predominantly to male demographics, albeit with significant interest from older women. The success of both films could prove historic; “Wicked” would surpass Jon M. Chu’s previous opening record with “G.I. Joe Retaliation,” which debuted at $41 million back in 2013. Moreover, for leading ladies Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo, this could mark their best box office performance to date. On the other hand, Denzel Washington aims to break his own records with “Gladiator II,” which, if successful, would eclipse his previous top debut with “American Gangster.”
The performance of these films carries particular significance in the context of genre benchmarks. Should “Wicked” achieve an 80 million-plus opening, it would set a new standard for adaptations of Broadway shows, surpassing the existing record set by “Bohemian Rhapsody.” Meanwhile, “Gladiator II” seems poised to outperform its predecessor, which managed $34.8 million upon its initial release. Given the historical running of both films, their opening numbers serve not only as immediate financial reflections but also as indicators of broader audience engagement.
While the numbers are promising, it’s crucial to consider the competition emerging from Disney’s “Moana 2,” which is expected to draw large audiences during the Thanksgiving holiday. Traditionally, the period surrounding Black Friday is one of the most lucrative times for movie-going, suggesting a robust movie atmosphere where multiple films can prosper simultaneously. However, the true effect of “Moana 2” on “Wicked” and “Gladiator II” remains a critical question as people’s viewership habits will determine the extent of their success.
Interestingly, both “Wicked” and “Gladiator II” appear to enjoy equal levels of initial awareness among prospective viewers, which is vital in gauging pre-release anticipation. However, “Gladiator II” leads in terms of total interest and is indicated to have a broader audience appeal. Despite this, presale tickets for “Wicked” are significantly outpacing “Gladiator II,” particularly due to trends showing that female audiences are more likely to organize group outings well in advance, a factor likely contributing to the impressive presale numbers.
The early screenings of both films have garnered tremendously positive reactions, with Broadway star Kristin Chenoweth, known for her iconic role in “Wicked,” expressing her fervent enthusiasm. Her statement, “Y’ALL WON’T EVEN BELIEVE HOW GOOD IT IS,” hints at the film’s potential to resonate exceptionally well with audiences. This excitement extends beyond mere numbers; it reflects a cultural reverence for the source material and a vested interest from fans.
In addition, the strategic decision by Universal to split “Wicked” into two parts demonstrates their confidence in the franchise’s viability, with the second part slated for release in Thanksgiving 2025. Originally, “Wicked” was set to compete head-to-head with “Moana 2,” but a strategic shift moved it to the same weekend as “Gladiator II,” allowing both films to leverage the Thanksgiving momentum.
As we count down to the release of “Wicked” and “Gladiator II,” several factors will influence their box office trajectories. Excitement, presales, historical comparisons, and audience demographics all play pivotal roles in determining how these films will be received. With the potential to break box office records and captivate diverse audiences, this Thanksgiving might turn out to be a significant turning point for the film industry, paving the way for a new era of spectacle and storytelling that caters to various viewers. The outcome remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: anticipation runs high, and the stakes have never been more intriguing for fans and industry alike.