The competitive landscape of the Thanksgiving weekend box office has always been fierce, and the current projections are a testimony to that fierce competition. With major studios vying for the attention of families on this holiday, the risks of overestimating box office revenues loom large. Disney’s much-anticipated release of Moana 2 appears to be a significant player in this holiday showdown, with projections indicating an impressive opening that could dethrone previous record-holders.
As the holiday kicks off, early estimates suggest that Moana 2 is on track for a robust $54 million take on its first day, which includes a remarkable $13.8 million from Tuesday’s previews. The sequel, featuring the beloved voices of Dwayne Johnson and Auli’i Cravalho, is projected to surpass the $170 million mark over the entire five-day Thanksgiving weekend. This staggering figure would not only secure a new Thanksgiving record for Disney but would also surpass both its predecessor, Frozen, which previously held the record with $93.9 million, and Frozen 2, which grossed $125 million during its run.
While initial estimates seem promising, industry veterans are aware that this success hinges on sustaining momentum through the weekend. A three-day gross could range between $90 million to upwards of $100 million — figures that would put Moana 2 alongside Dwayne Johnson’s most successful openings, with Furious 7 previously holding the domestic box office record at $147.1 million in 2015. Such projections indicate a powerful return for Disney’s animation division under Alan Bergman’s leadership, adding to the impressive roster of high-grossing films, including recent hits like Inside Out 2 and the overall box office titan, Deadpool & Wolverine.
While Moana 2 garners most of the attention, it is crucial to examine how competing films are performing this Thanksgiving. Wicked, for example, is poised to make its mark as one of the highest-grossing films adapted from a Broadway musical, projecting a standing total of approximately $236.9 million, surpassing the previous benchmark set by Grease. Over the five-day window, Wicked is expected to reach around $92 million, marking a commendable increase during this lucrative holiday stretch. The growth in ticket sales likewise reflects the film’s increasing popularity with audiences, generating an impressive $18.5 million on the highest weekday thus far.
Meanwhile, Gladiator 2 continues to add to its earnings with a strong second weekend projection of $27.3 million. With the film’s production costs reported at $250 million, it is imperative for box office returns to meet or exceed expectations to justify its production budget. Similarly, Red One, featuring Johnson again, is anticipated to collect around $19 million over the same period, contributing to its ongoing success in multiple media formats.
The fluctuating predictions surrounding Thanksgiving releases serve as a reminder of the inherent uncertainties within the film industry. The stakes are exceptionally high, particularly during a period renowned for family-oriented movies. Historical data indicates that 2018 saw Ralph Breaks the Internet setting a benchmark of $315.6 million for the Thanksgiving five-day period. Industry experts suggest that it may be possible to surpass this record, given the current trajectory of films competing this season. With Moana 2 and Wicked both performing exceedingly well, the capacity for these films to eclipse prior records lies in their spectatorship and word-of-mouth buzz.
The Thanksgiving weekend box office is not merely a numbers game, but a complex interplay of audience preferences, marketing strategies, and timing. Understanding audience sentiments and the eagerness for family-friendly content can lead to remarkable successes in this crucial financial stretch. While projections may appear optimistic for Moana 2, the true test will be whether these films can sustain their initial buzz through the holiday and beyond. As the dust settles, the coming days will reveal which titles will claim victory in this competitive arena.